Total Stock Market
Every US stock in one index fund, and nothing else.
The whole US stock market: a benchmark, not a designed portfolio.
Before the numbers. A hypothetical backtest, not a forecast: Jun 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026 (26.2 years), the window every published portfolio shares. Rebalanced once a year at 10 basis points a trade. The bar is the three-fund at the same stock share, 100%.
Funds younger than the window are extended by older series, each junction validated (how): VTI by VTSMX before 2001-06-15.
What it holds
| Asset class, and the fund this backtest holds it through | Weight | Fund fee |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market VTI · Vanguard Total Stock Market |
100% | 0.03% |
| Together | 100% | 0.03% |
The funds are the ones this backtest uses for each asset class, not a list to buy: any fund tracking the same asset class holds the same thing.
Its record against the three-fund at 100% stocks
| Statistic | Total Stock Market | Three-fund at 100% stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Value per $10,000 | $89,352 | $67,057 |
| Total return | 793.52% | 570.57% |
| Annual return (CAGR) | 8.69% | 7.51% |
| Standard deviation | 15.52% | 15.49% |
| Max drawdown | -55.45% | -57.66% |
| Worst calendar year | -36.99% | -39.82% |
| Longest time underwater | 1401 days | 1318 days |
| Ulcer Index | 15.73% | 16.28% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| Ulcer Performance Index | 0.43 | 0.35 |
The crises
| Deepest decline from a prior peak | Total Stock Market | Three-fund at 100% stocks |
|---|---|---|
| 2000–02 | -47.2% | -46.7% |
| 2008 | -55.5% | -57.7% |
| 2020 | -35.0% | -34.4% |
| 2022 | -25.4% | -26.5% |
2000–02 is measured from June 2000, the window's start, after the March peak; 2008 from October 2007 to June 2009; 2020 from February to April; 2022 through 2023.
Calendar years
The first and last years are partial.
The trade-off
This is a benchmark rather than a design: the US market’s own return with the US market’s own risk. Nothing in it cushions a fall. There are no bonds to rebalance into and no other country’s stocks. Over this window its worst decline was -55.5%, and it spent 5.6 years below an earlier peak.
Every other portfolio here gives up some of this one’s return for shallower declines, or holds other assets in the hope of more return for the same decline. It returned 8.69% a year over the window. That was a good era for US stocks, which is worth keeping in mind when reading any row.