What would this mix have done?
A backtest: any mix of tickers, rebalanced on a calendar, by bands or by buying only, on total-return data, with the same metric definitions as the model pages. Risk first: the worst decline and every drawdown deeper than 10% sit beside the return.
Result
Hypothetical: a replay of past market data, before tax. Not a forecast, not advice.
From April 1992 to October 2026 (34 years), Classic 60/40 turned $10,000 into $178,039, 8.7% a year.
Based on: VOO 60%, BND 40%, rebalanced annually, 1992–2026
Its worst decline was 33.8%, from October 2007 to March 2009; it was back at its old peak in November 2010. Over the same years the reference mix returned 7.8% a year, and its worst decline was 35.8%.
More
Before January 2011 some of this history is backfilled or synthetic (extended history, marked on the chart).
Classic 60/40 vs Reference mix · 1992-04-28 to 2026-10-09 (34.4 years)
Change the numbers
| Statistic | Classic 60/40 | Reference mix |
|---|---|---|
| Value per $10,000 | $178,039 | $132,937 |
| Total return | 1680.39% | 1229.37% |
| Annual return (CAGR) | 8.72% | 7.80% |
| Standard deviation | 9.14% | 9.23% |
| Max drawdown | -33.79% | -35.82% |
| Worst calendar year | -19.47% | -21.15% |
| Longest time underwater | 877 days | 943 days |
| Ulcer Index | 6.70% | 7.10% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.04 | 0.86 |
| Ulcer Performance Index | 0.93 | 0.74 |
| Beta vs benchmark | 0.95 | 1.00 |
Drawdowns deeper than 10% — Classic 60/40
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Days to trough | Recovered | Days underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-10-09 | 2009-03-09 | -33.8% | 517 | 2010-11-02 | 1120 |
| 2000-09-01 | 2002-07-23 | -24.4% | 690 | 2004-03-05 | 1281 |
| 2020-02-19 | 2020-03-23 | -21.2% | 33 | 2020-07-20 | 152 |
| 2021-12-27 | 2022-10-14 | -20.9% | 291 | 2024-01-29 | 763 |
| 2018-09-20 | 2018-12-24 | -11.8% | 95 | 2019-03-21 | 182 |
| 1998-07-17 | 1998-08-31 | -11.4% | 45 | 1998-11-20 | 126 |
| 2025-02-19 | 2025-04-08 | -11.0% | 48 | 2025-06-12 | 113 |
Calendar-year returns
Tax efficiency
The same series in three account types over the same window. Bracket: 22% ordinary and short-term, 15% long-term and qualified, gold at 22% (collectibles: the lower of 28% and the ordinary rate). Dividends: constant dividend yields by asset class (the taxable program's convention), the same in real and extended eras (us stock 1.6%, intl stock 2.8% ordinary 30%, em stock 2.6% ordinary 30%, reit 3.6% ordinary 80%, us bond 3.3% ordinary 100%, intl bond 3.0% ordinary 100%, tips 3.0% ordinary 100%, cash 3.0% ordinary 100%, gold 0.0%, commodities 0.0%, balanced 2.2% ordinary 40%). Rebalancing in the taxable account: once a year in December; single funds are held without rebalancing. Trading costs as above. Federal rates only, no state tax, no wash-sale or lot-selection tricks beyond selling losses first, then long-term gains. A view of what taxes do to a mix, not tax advice.
| Statistic | Classic 60/40 | Reference mix |
|---|---|---|
| Value per $10,000, pre-tax (a Roth keeps this) | $175,650 | $131,205 |
| Value per $10,000, taxable account, after tax and liquidation | $129,878 | $95,716 |
| Value per $10,000, traditional 401(k)/IRA, after tax | $137,007 | $102,340 |
| Annual return, pre-tax | 8.68% | 7.76% |
| Annual return, taxable account | 7.73% | 6.78% |
| Annual return, traditional | 7.89% | 6.98% |
| Tax paid per year, taxable account | 0.56% | 0.62% |
| Unrealised gains at the end, share of value | 66.8% | 61.3% |
Retirement impact
A median-person scenario; sign in and complete a profile in Kaight to see your own. Age 40, retiring at 65, money to last to 95; savings $35,537, earned income $70,252 with 12.1% saved each year; from retirement, income at the 4% rule (4% of the balance at retirement in the first year, the same dollars every year after (Bengen 1994, a 30-year US rule of thumb)). Social Security left out: it is the same whatever you hold. Full histories are used here whatever the time period above.
Before the numbers: Two legs of the same history, stitched at retirement, never one continuous path. Before retirement: the saving years replayed from every start month, band = 10th–90th percentile of start months. At retirement: income at the 4% rule on each start month's balance. After retirement: seeded at the median balance and drawing 4% of it a year, replayed from every start month, so the band there is sequence risk alone. The band stops where fewer than three starts reach that age. Overlapping windows from one history are not independent trials. Hypothetical, pre-tax, not a forecast.
The reference mix appears twice: the three-fund as drawn above, and its index-layer twin: the index-layer reference holds S&P 500 total return (from 1928) and 5-year Treasuries (from 1962) through the us_large / treas_int chains: the reference's equity share on a plainer, longer history — no ex-US stocks, no credit, no total-bond market. Each series replays its own history, so the twin's start months include the 1960s and 1970s that no fund-era series has; read it beside the others with that in mind.
History 1986-12-31 to 2026-09-30 (bound by BND). Saving years: 466 start months, 178 reach age 65. Retirement years: 466 start months, 106 reach age 95.
History 1992-04-30 to 2026-09-30 (bound by VTI). Saving years: 402 start months, 114 reach age 65. Retirement years: 402 start months, 42 reach age 95.
History 1962-01-31 to 2026-09-30 (bound by VGIT). Saving years: 765 start months, 477 reach age 65. Retirement years: 765 start months, 405 reach age 95.
| Series | Savings at 65, median | Income at 4%, worst decile | Income at 4%, median | Income at 4%, best decile | Retirement starts that lasted to 95 | Left at 95, median | Worst retirement start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic 60/40 | $565,802 ($486,678–$595,264) | $19,467 | $22,632 | $23,811 | 106 of 106 | $1,634,156 | 1987-08-31 → lasted |
| Reference mix | $492,622 ($411,919–$535,160) | $16,477 | $19,705 | $21,406 | 42 of 42 | $842,744 | 1994-01-31 → lasted |
| Reference mix (index layer) | $577,888 ($445,162–$775,303) | $17,806 | $23,116 | $31,012 | 363 of 405 | $1,439,672 | 1968-11-30 → out at 90 |
Today's dollars, pre-tax. "Savings at 65" is the median start month's balance at the end of the last working year (10th–90th percentile in brackets); "income at 4%" is 4% of that balance for the worst-decile, median and best-decile start month. "Lasted" and "left" replay the retirement years from every start month, seeded at the median balance and drawing 4% of it a year. For scale, a median 65+ household spends about $37,720 a year beyond Social Security. For a plan of your own, with income sources, your spending, a retirement-age switch and the fee view, use the retirement projection. Scenario sources: savings Vanguard, How America Saves 2025, median participant balance age 35–44; earned income BLS usual weekly earnings, full-time workers age 35–44, 2025 Q2 median ($1,351 × 52); savings rate Vanguard, How America Saves 2025, average total contribution rate (employee + employer); spending yardstick BLS Consumer Expenditures 2024, average spending of 65+ households ($61,432) less the SSA average retired-worker benefit for 2025 ($1,976/month).
Hypothetical, pre-tax, historical simulation from total-return price data; not a prediction, not advice. Metric definitions: methodology. Download the monthly series (CSV).