The success of your retirement plan depends greatly on the return on your investments. Even a small change in return assumptions can make a significant impact.
Planning for retirement is a complex process that involves various factors, one of the most critical being the return on your investments (ROI). In this blog post, we will explore how different ROI scenarios can significantly affect your financial outlook using Kaight, an AI retirement calculator.
Let’s take a look at how different rates of return can affect an average pre-retirement American’s financial outlook. Here is the scenario I gave it:
I am 42 and want to retire at 65. I have $100,000 in a 401K and contribute 10K a year. I will need $60K/yr in retirement. I will receive $20K/yr in SS starting at 67. Assume an ROI of 10.2%
The Optimistic Scenario: 10.2% ROI
We’ll start with an optimistic scenario based on historical S&P 500 returns. Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 10.2% annually. Adjusting for inflation (2.6%), this gives us a real return of 7.6%.
Here was the AI retirement calculator’s response:
### Retirement Plan Summary
#### Key Inputs:
- **Current Age**: 42
- **Retirement Age**: 65
- **Retirement Duration**: 30 years
- **Current Savings**: $100,000
- **Annual Contribution to Savings**: $10,000
- **Target Annual Income in Retirement**: $60,000
- **Social Security Income**: $20,000 starting at age 67
- **Expected Nominal Return Rate**: 10.2%
- **Expected Inflation Rate**: 2.6%
- **Real Return Rate**: 7.6% (nominal return rate adjusted for inflation)
#### Key Results:
- **Total Savings at Retirement (Age 65)**: $1,138,853 (in today’s dollars)
- **Legacy Savings at Age 95**: $5,757,912 (in today’s dollars)
#### Analysis:
- You will have approximately $1,138,853 in savings by the time you retire at age 65.
- With your target annual retirement income of $60,000 and Social Security income of $20,000 starting at age 67, your savings will continue to grow, leaving a substantial legacy amount of $5,757,912 by age 95.
### Time Series Data:
Below is a detailed breakdown of your savings growth over time, including annual returns and contributions.
```json
{
"entityType": "RetirementCalculation",
"time_series": {
"Age": [42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95],
"Total Savings": [100000, 117980, 137326, 158143, 180542, 204643, 230576, 258480, 288504, 320810, 355572, 392975, 433221, 476526, 523122, 573259, 627207, 685255, 747714, 814920, 887234, 965044, 1048767, 1138853, 1165786, 1194766, 1245948, 1301020, 1360278, 1424039, 1492646, 1566467, 1645898, 1731366, 1823330, 1922283, 2028757, 2143323, 2266596, 2399237, 2541959, 2695528, 2860768, 3038566, 3229877, 3435728, 3657223, 3895552, 4151994, 4427926, 4724828, 5044295, 5388041, 5757912],
"Savings Return": [7980, 9346, 10817, 12399, 14101, 15933, 17904, 20024, 22306, 24762, 27403, 30246, 33305, 36596, 40137, 43948, 48048, 52459, 57206, 62314, 67810, 73723, 80086, 86933, 88980, 91182, 95072, 99258, 103761, 108607, 113821, 119431, 125468, 131964, 138953, 146474, 154566, 163273, 172641, 182722, 193569, 205240, 217798, 231311, 245851, 261495, 278329, 296442, 315932, 336902, 359467, 383746, 409871, 437981],
"Savings Inflow": [10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, -60000, -60000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000]
},
"key_inputs": {
"current_age": 42.0,
"retirement_age": 65.0,
"retirement_duration": 30.0,
"current_savings": 100000,
"nominal_return_rate": 10.2,
"inflation_rate": 2.6,
"earned_income": 0,
"preretirement_savings_inflow": 10000,
"social_security_income": 20000,
"social_security_start_age": 67.0,
"pension_income": 0,
"pension_start_age": 1.0,
"other_income": 0,
"other_income_start_age": 1.0,
"other_income_end_age": 1.0,
"retirement_income_target": 60000,
"real_return_rate": 7.6
},
"options": {
"incomeChart": {
"display": false
}
}
}
```
This plan shows that you are on track to meet your retirement goals with a comfortable margin. If you have any further questions or need adjustments to the plan, feel free to ask!
In this rosy scenario, our hypothetical retiree would have over $1.1 million saved by retirement and could potentially leave a legacy of nearly $5.8 million by age 95. Sounds great, right? But there’s a catch…
A More Realistic Scenario: 7.5% ROI
Most people don’t have the risk tolerance to invest entirely in stocks. A common approach is the 60/40 portfolio – 60% stocks and 40% bonds. This more conservative strategy has historically returned about 7.5% over the last 20 years.
Let’s see how this changes our retirement outlook:
### Retirement Plan Summary with 7.5% ROI
#### Key Inputs:
- **Current Age**: 42
- **Retirement Age**: 65
- **Retirement Duration**: 30 years
- **Current Savings**: $100,000
- **Annual Contribution to Savings**: $10,000
- **Target Annual Income in Retirement**: $60,000
- **Social Security Income**: $20,000 starting at age 67
- **Expected Nominal Return Rate**: 7.5%
- **Expected Inflation Rate**: 2.6%
- **Real Return Rate**: 4.9% (nominal return rate adjusted for inflation)
#### Key Results:
- **Total Savings at Retirement (Age 65)**: $719,694 (in today’s dollars)
- **Legacy Savings at Age 95**: $270,039 (in today’s dollars)
#### Analysis:
- You will have approximately $719,694 in savings by the time you retire at age 65.
- With your target annual retirement income of $60,000 and Social Security income of $20,000 starting at age 67, your savings will continue to grow, leaving a legacy amount of $270,039 by age 95.
### Time Series Data:
Below is a detailed breakdown of your savings growth over time, including annual returns and contributions.
```json
{
"entityType": "RetirementCalculation",
"time_series": {
"Age": [42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95],
"Total Savings": [100000, 115145, 131032, 147698, 165180, 183519, 202756, 222936, 244105, 266311, 289605, 314041, 339674, 366563, 394770, 424359, 455398, 487958, 522113, 557942, 595526, 634952, 676310, 719694, 695204, 669514, 662565, 655276, 647630, 639609, 631195, 622369, 613110, 603397, 593208, 582520, 571308, 559547, 547210, 534268, 520692, 506451, 491512, 475841, 459402, 442158, 424069, 405093, 385188, 364307, 342403, 319426, 295323, 270039],
"Savings Return": [5145, 5887, 6666, 7482, 8339, 9237, 10180, 11169, 12206, 13294, 14436, 15633, 16889, 18207, 19589, 21039, 22560, 24155, 25829, 27584, 29426, 31358, 33384, 35510, 34310, 33051, 32711, 32354, 31979, 31586, 31174, 30741, 30287, 29811, 29312, 28788, 28239, 27663, 27058, 26424, 25759, 25061, 24329, 23561, 22756, 21911, 21024, 20095, 19119, 18096, 17023, 15897, 14716, 13477],
"Savings Inflow": [10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, -60000, -60000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000]
},
"key_inputs": {
"current_age": 42.0,
"retirement_age": 65.0,
"retirement_duration": 30.0,
"current_savings": 100000,
"nominal_return_rate": 7.5,
"inflation_rate": 2.6,
"earned_income": 0,
"preretirement_savings_inflow": 10000,
"social_security_income": 20000,
"social_security_start_age": 67.0,
"pension_income": 0,
"pension_start_age": 1.0,
"other_income": 0,
"other_income_start_age": 1.0,
"other_income_end_age": 1.0,
"retirement_income_target": 60000,
"real_return_rate": 4.9
},
"options": {
"incomeChart": {
"display": false
}
}
}
```
This recalculated plan shows that with a 7.5% ROI, you will still be able to meet your retirement goals, but with a smaller margin compared to the previous scenario. If you have any further questions or need adjustments to the plan, feel free to ask!
With this more realistic 7.5% ROI, our retiree still achieves their goals but with a much smaller cushion. They’d have about $720,000 at retirement and leave behind $270,000 at age 95 – a far cry from the $5.8 million in our optimistic scenario.
The Impact of a 1% Drop: 6.5% ROI
Now, let’s consider what happens if our investment returns are just 1% lower than our previous scenario. This could be due to various factors such as market underperformance, higher fees, or a more conservative asset allocation. With our ROI dropping from 7.5% to 6.5%, let’s see how this seemingly small change affects our retirement projections:
### Retirement Plan Summary with 6.5% ROI
#### Key Inputs:
- **Current Age**: 42
- **Retirement Age**: 65
- **Retirement Duration**: 30 years
- **Current Savings**: $100,000
- **Annual Contribution to Savings**: $10,000
- **Target Annual Income in Retirement**: $60,000
- **Social Security Income**: $20,000 starting at age 67
- **Expected Nominal Return Rate**: 6.5%
- **Expected Inflation Rate**: 2.6%
- **Real Return Rate**: 3.9% (nominal return rate adjusted for inflation)
#### Key Results:
- **Total Savings at Retirement (Age 65)**: $609,870 (in today’s dollars)
- **Legacy Savings at Age 95**: -$392,791 (in today’s dollars)
#### Analysis:
- You will have approximately $609,870 in savings by the time you retire at age 65.
- With your target annual retirement income of $60,000 and Social Security income of $20,000 starting at age 67, your savings will be depleted, resulting in a negative legacy amount of -$392,791 by age 95.
- This indicates that with a 6.5% ROI, your current savings and contributions will not be sufficient to meet your retirement income needs.
### Time Series Data:
Below is a detailed breakdown of your savings growth over time, including annual returns and contributions.
```json
{
"entityType": "RetirementCalculation",
"time_series": {
"Age": [42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95],
"Total Savings": [100000, 114095, 128740, 143956, 159765, 176191, 193257, 210989, 229413, 248555, 268444, 289108, 310578, 332886, 356064, 380145, 405166, 431162, 458172, 486236, 515394, 545689, 577166, 609870, 573850, 536425, 517541, 497920, 477534, 456353, 434346, 411480, 387723, 363039, 337393, 310746, 283060, 254294, 224406, 193353, 161089, 127566, 92736, 56548, 18948, -20118, -60708, -102881, -146698, -192224, -239526, -288673, -339736, -392791],
"Savings Return": [4095, 4645, 5216, 5809, 6426, 7066, 7732, 8424, 9142, 9889, 10664, 11470, 12308, 13178, 14081, 15021, 15996, 17010, 18064, 19158, 20295, 21477, 22704, 23980, 22575, 21116, 20379, 19614, 18819, 17993, 17134, 16243, 15316, 14354, 13353, 12314, 11234, 10112, 8947, 7736, 6477, 5170, 3812, 2400, 934, -590, -2173, -3817, -5526, -7302, -9147, -11063, -13055, -15124],
"Savings Inflow": [10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, 10000, -60000, -60000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000, -40000]
},
"key_inputs": {
"current_age": 42.0,
"retirement_age": 65.0,
"retirement_duration": 30.0,
"current_savings": 100000,
"nominal_return_rate": 6.5,
"inflation_rate": 2.6,
"earned_income": 0,
"preretirement_savings_inflow": 10000,
"social_security_income": 20000,
"social_security_start_age": 67.0,
"pension_income": 0,
"pension_start_age": 1.0,
"other_income": 0,
"other_income_start_age": 1.0,
"other_income_end_age": 1.0,
"retirement_income_target": 60000,
"real_return_rate": 3.9
},
"options": {
"incomeChart": {
"display": false
}
}
}
```
This recalculated plan shows that with a 6.5% ROI, your current savings and contributions will not be sufficient to meet your retirement income needs. You may need to consider increasing your annual contributions, delaying retirement, or adjusting your retirement income target. If you have any further questions or need adjustments to the plan, feel free to ask!
The results are sobering. With just a 1% reduction in returns due to fees, our retiree now runs out of money by age 87 and would be nearly $400,000 in debt by age 95 if they maintained their planned spending.
Key Takeaways
- The power of compound interest is real: Small differences in ROI can lead to massive differences in long-term wealth accumulation.
- Be realistic about returns: While the stock market has historically provided excellent long-term returns, most retirees need a more balanced, lower-risk approach.
- Mind the fees: Investment fees can significantly erode your returns over time. Be aware of what you’re paying and consider low-cost index funds or ETFs.
- Plan conservatively: It’s better to be pleasantly surprised by having more money than you expected than to run out of funds in your later years.
- Regularly review and adjust: Your retirement plan isn’t set in stone. Regularly reassess your investments, contributions, and expected returns to stay on track.
Remember, while these projections can be helpful guides, they’re based on historical data and assumptions that may not hold true in the future. It’s always wise to consult with a financial advisor to create a personalized retirement strategy that accounts for your unique circumstances and risk tolerance.
By understanding the impact of investment returns on your retirement savings, you can make more informed decisions about your financial future. Whether it’s increasing your savings rate, adjusting your investment strategy, or planning for a longer working career, being aware of these factors empowers you to take control of your retirement journey.
Try It Yourself
Ready to see how your retirement plans stack up? Try Kaight, our AI-powered retirement calculator, to explore different scenarios and see how investment returns impact your financial future. Just input your details and let Kaight crunch the numbers – it’s that easy to gain valuable insights for your retirement strategy.
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